© 2016 This paper builds on previous research and seeks to determine whether improvements can be achieved in the forecasting of oil price volatility by using a hybrid model and incorporating financial variables. The main conclusion is that the hybrid model increases the volatility forecasting precision by 30% over previous models as measured by a heteroscedasticity-adjusted mean squared error (HMSE) model. Key financial variables included in the model that improved the prediction are the Euro/Dollar and Yen/Dollar exchange rates, and the DJIA and FTSE stock market indexes.
Kristjanpoller, W., & Minutolo, M. C. (2016). Forecasting volatility of oil price using an artificial neural network-GARCH model. Expert Systems with Applications, 233-241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2016.08.045